Patrick Michaels sea level rise rate

This seems to count as humor over at WUWT: displaying an older plot by Pat Micheals showing “Ten year running mean sea level rise from satellite altimetry”. The plot shown at WUWT is the one depicted in red in the below blinker plot. There are two observations to make: 1) the highlighted “trend” is only there if you leave out the most recent data, 2) part of the data is wrong. I calculated ordinary least squares linear fits to the sea level data for ten year periods ending in December of the year designated on the x-Axis. This is a bit fiddly, as the number of data points per year vary. While there is very good agreement between the true values and the plot by Pat Micheals his values are too low for the most recent years. If you want to get an OLS slope of 2.25 mm/year for data ending in December 2011 (as seen in the last data point of the Micheals plot) you may only use 8.5 years of data. I have no idea, how an error like this can occur in the Micheals plot. Looks rather sloppy to me.


(click to enlarge)

Here are the OLS slopes: mean sea level rise rates for the 10-year periods ending of December of the designated year in mm/yr
2002 3.52
2003 3.75
2004 3.84
2005 3.90
2006 3.72
2007 3.44
2008 3.23
2009 3.04
2010 2.75
2011 2.41
2012 2.66

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One Response to Patrick Michaels sea level rise rate

  1. Pingback: The Climate Change Debate Thread - Page 2630

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